Exploration of Outcome Feedback for Dynamic Decision Making

....................................................................................................................................................................ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS....................................................................................................................................... iv CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO THE DISSERTATION...................................................................1 1.1. Linking Public Policy-making and Dynamic Decision-making................................................................ 1 1.2. Dynamic Decision Making Environments .................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Research Questions Explored.......................................................................................................................... 4 1.4. Organization ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND REFLECTIONS...............................................................8 2.1. A Literature Review of Dynamic Decision Making.................................................................................... 8 2.2. Outcome Feedback – an “Alternative” View from another Literature ................................................... 28 2.3. Reflections on the Real-World Dynamic Decision Making..................................................................... 32 CHAPTER 3: HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT..........................................................................................34 3.1. A Framework for Knowledge of Results .................................................................................................... 35 3.2. Decision Aids from the Addition of Benchmark Outcome ...................................................................... 38 3.3. Decision Aids with the Full-featured Outcome Feedback........................................................................ 40 3.4. Hypotheses Examined..................................................................................................................................... 42 CHAPTER 4: THE EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURES ............................................................................46 4.1. A Gaming Experimental Approach.............................................................................................................. 46 4.2. A Production-distribution Task..................................................................................................................... 48 4.3. Logistics and Procedures for the Gaming Experiment.............................................................................. 56 4.4. The Post-game Debriefing ............................................................................................................................. 59 CHAPTER 5: ANOVA AND CORRELATION ANALYSES ...................................................................62 5.1. Task Performance............................................................................................................................................ 62 5.2. Tentative Explanations for the Unexpected Results.................................................................................. 67 5.3. Forms of Information Display....................................................................................................................... 71 5.4. Task Knowledge Measured by the Post-game Debriefing Questions.................................................... 76 5.5. Task Knowledge by Modeling the Decision Rule...................................................................................... 80 5.6. A Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 85 CHAPTER 6: A MODEL FOR DYNAMIC DECISION MAKING......................................................87 6.1. Layer 1: Structural and Heuristics Knowledge........................................................................................... 88 6.2. Layer 2: Forms of Information Display....................................................................................................... 93 6.3. Layer 3: Adding Task Difficulty in the Process Model............................................................................ 98 6.4. Completing the Process Model with the Outcome Feedback Treatments ...........................................104 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................... 113 7.1. A Summary for the Hypotheses and the Results ......................................................................................114 7.2. Implications for Decision Support in Public Policy-making Process ..................................................119 7.3. Limitations of the Current Study ................................................................................................................123 7.4. Suggestions for Future Research.................................................................................................................124